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Add your Comment. Probabilities are hard for people to understand, Grushka-Cockayne says. She credits the work of the National Hurricane Center, Nate Silver, and others for helping educate the public on how to interpret probability forecasts, but more work is needed to improve visualizations.

That paper, coauthored with Xiaojia Guo and Bert De Reyck of the University College London School of Management, details a project with Heathrow Airport using probabilities to forecast flows of international connecting passengers. The system allows airport and airline officials to address likely bottlenecks before the security or immigration queues back up, and identify passengers at risk of missing connecting flights.


Using real-time data and easily understood visuals, the system produces a range of possibilities, not a point forecast, and its accuracy is measured. The system is operating at Heathrow, with Paris airports in advanced discussions about implementing it there. The first step is cleaning up the data so the different systems can be leveraged together.

The medical field is another domain with a lot to gain from being able to predict patient flow better. How sharp are your organization's forecasting abilities? How could they be better? Share your insights below.

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The Better Way to Forecast the Future. We can forecast hurricane paths with great certainty, yet many businesses can't predict a supply chain snafu just around the corner.

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Yael Grushka-Cockayne says crowdsourcing can help. Use history for confirmation Organizations serious about improving their forecasting abilities need to do better at tracking past results. What do you think of this research? In order to be published, comments must be on-topic and civil in tone, with no name calling or personal attacks. Your comment may be edited for clarity and length. Sign up for our weekly newsletter. Interested in improving your business? Learn about fresh research and ideas from Harvard Business School faculty.